Frankly, I wonder whether any amount of arm-waving will incline investors to actually examine their risk exposures here, much less consider the prospect of a 40%+ decline in the S&P 500 Index that would be required simply to bring stocks to historically run-of-the-mill valuations. But at a time when our estimates of prospective risk are surging, I would be remiss not to observe that fact.
At present, we have what might best be characterized as a broken speculative peak, in that market internals (particularly interest-sensitive groups), breadth and leadership have broken down uniformly following an extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndrome. If you recall, the market also recovered to new highs in October 2007, weeks after the initial, decisive break in market internals at that time. Presently, we're looking at the same set of circumstances. On some event related to tapering or the Fed Chair nomination, we may even see another push higher. It isn't simply short-term risk, but deep cyclical risk that is of concern.
My main goal here is to encourage investors to look carefully at their investment positions, before they lose the chance to alter them advantageously. As I noted in the October 15, 2007 market comment Warning – Examine All Risk Exposures:
Hot Casino Companies To Own For 2015: Tupperware Corporation(TUP)
Tupperware Brands Corporation operates as a direct seller of various products across a range of brands and categories through an independent sales force. The company engages in the manufacture and sale of kitchen and home products, and beauty and personal care products. It offers preparation, storage, and serving solutions for the kitchen and home, as well as kitchen cookware and tools, children?s educational toys, microwave products, and gifts under the Tupperware brand name primarily in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, the Asia Pacific, and North America. The company provides beauty and personal care products, which include skin care products, cosmetics, bath and body care, toiletries, fragrances, nutritional products, apparel, and related products principally in Mexico, South Africa, the Philippines, Australia, and Uruguay. It offers beauty and personal care products under the Armand Dupree, Avroy Shlain, BeautiControl, Fuller, NaturCare, Nutrimetics, Nuvo, and Swissgar de brand names. The company sells its Tupperware products directly to distributors, directors, managers, and dealers; and beauty products primarily through consultants and directors. As of December 26, 2009, the Tupperware distribution system had approximately 1,800 distributors, 61,300 managers, and 1.3 million dealers; and the sales force representing the Beauty businesses approximately 1.1 million. The company was formerly known as Tupperware Corporation and changed its name to Tupperware Brands Corporation in December 2005. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Teresa Rivas]
We think KMB will be perceived as the safest of the multinationals. Its sales outside the US are about 55% of total; this compares to 65%-70% for Procter & Gamble (PG) and Coty (COTY) and 80%-90% for Colgate (CL), Avon and Tupperware (TUP). In general, its risk to the most volatile currencies is below average (its exposure to Eastern Europe is less than 2% of sales), though it is still translating results in Venezuela (about 3% of sales and profit) at the official rate of 6.3 VEF/$ (the parallel rate just hit 175 VEF/$) and Argentina (also 3% of sales) may devalue again. The cost of important raw materials has started to weaken; as they follow oil�� decline they could boost gross margins in 2H15. Of note, polypropylene and natural gas are off 17% 4Q-to-date; pulp prices, while not declining much, seem manageable.
- [By Johanna Bennett]
Corporate earnings took a back seat today to the Fed�� latest policy decision. Still, quarterly financial results, and other news sent shares of McCormick & Co. (MKC) and Tupperware (TUP), falling during regular market hours�Here�� a rundown of several of today�� moves:
- [By Monica Gerson]
Tupperware Brands (NYSE: TUP) is expected to report its Q3 earnings at $1.03 per share on revenue of $623.34 million.
Varian Medical Systems (NYSE: VAR) is projected to post its Q4 earnings at $1.12 per share on revenue of $779.02 million.
- [By John Kell]
Among the companies with shares expected to actively trade in Wednesday’s session are Dow Chemical Co.(DOW), Tupperware Brands Corp.(TUP) and Yahoo Inc.(YHOO)
Hot Valued Stocks To Buy Right Now: Schlumberger N.V.(SLB)
Schlumberger Limited, together with its subsidiaries, supplies technology, integrated project management, and information solutions to the oil and gas exploration and production industries worldwide. The company?s Oilfield Services segment provides exploration and production services; wireline technology that offers open-hole and cased-hole services; supplies engineering support, directional-drilling, measurement-while-drilling, and logging-while-drilling services; and testing services. This segment also offers well services; supplies well completion services and equipment; artificial lift; data and consulting services; geo services; and information solutions, such as consulting, software, information management system, and IT infrastructure services that support oil and gas industry. Its WesternGeco segment provides reservoir imaging, monitoring, and development services; and operates data processing centers and multiclient seismic library. This segment also offers variou s services include 3D and time-lapse (4D) seismic surveys to multi-component surveys for delineating prospects and reservoir management. The company?s M-I SWACO segment supplies drilling fluid systems to improve drilling performance; fluid systems and specialty tools to optimize wellbore productivity; production technology solutions to maximize production rates; and environmental solutions that manages waste volumes generated in drilling and production operations. Its Smith Oilfield segment designs, manufactures, and markets drill bits and borehole enlargement tools; and supplies drilling tools and services, tubular, completion services, and other related downhole solutions. The company?s Distribution segment markets pipes, valves, and fittings, as well as mill, safety, and other maintenance products. This segment also provides warehouse management, vendor integration, and inventory management services. Schlumberger Limited was founded in 1927 and is based in Houston, Texas.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Aaron Levitt]
With a variety of oil stocks reporting full-year 2013 earnings, unconventional assets are the gifts that keep on giving for the oil service trio of Halliburton (HAL), Baker Hughes (BHI) and Schlumberger (SLB).
- [By WALLSTCHEATSHEET]
Schlumberger provides essential energy products and services to consumers and companies operating around the world. The stock has not see much movement in recent years but may be getting ready to head higher. Earnings and revenue figures have mostly been increasing but investors have grown to expect more from the company. Relative to its peers and sector, Schlumberger has been an average performer. WAIT AND SEE what Schlumberger stock does this coming quarter.
- [By Dimitra DeFotis]
The market seems to be showing fatigue particularly with positive onshore oil service data points that may no�longer seem incremental. Investors have become especially focused on potential issues and macro concerns. We believe this phase�of enhanced risk perceptions will pass and still recommend owning selective stocks based on attractive valuations and healthy�fundamentals. Of the 16 oilfield services companies having reported their quarters to date, the share price changes have at times�been difficult to tie to specific results. �… Five of the 12 companies who have beaten earnings expectations have seen their share prices drop on the day, including Basic Energy Services (BAS) (-9.0%), Baker Hughes (BHI) (-2.5%), National Oilwell Varco (NOV) (-1.5%), Oceaneering (OII) (-4.2%), and Schlumberger (SLB) (-2.0%). Other stocks beating expectations have traded higher as expected, including Cameron International (CAM) (+4.1%), FMC Technologies (FTI) (+3.1%), Mitcham Industries (MIND) (+3.8%), Nabors Industries (NBR) (+1.2%), Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) (+1.8%), RPC (RES) (+8.4%), and Weatherford International (WFT) (+2.3%). Companies which have missed have universally seen their share prices decline, including Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) (-4.3%), Gulfmark Offshore (GLF) (-0.1%), and Hercules Offshore (HERO) (-6.9%). Halliburton (HAL) was in line and flat on the day.
Hot Valued Stocks To Buy Right Now: Dollar Tree Inc.(DLTR)
Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety stores in the United States and Canada. Its stores offer merchandise primarily at the fixed price of $1.00. The company operates its stores under the names of Dollar Tree, Deal$, Dollar Tree Deal$, Dollar Giant, and Dollar Bills. Its stores offer consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and beauty care, as well as household consumables, such as paper, plastics, household chemicals, in select stores, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise, which includes toys, durable housewares, gifts, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, and other items; and seasonal goods, such as Easter, Halloween, and Christmas merchandise. As of April 30, 2011, it operated 4,089 stores in 48 states and the District of Columbia, as well as 88 stores in Canada. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By David Kerr]
On July 28, Dollar Tree (DLTR) announced that it will be buying rival Family Dollar for a total of $9.2 billion (including debt). Icahn had originally suggested that Family Dollar be bought out by leader Dollar General, but shortly after stated that the recent announcement of the retirement of Dollar General�� CEO would cause disruptions in his plan of merging the two companies. The announced deal gives Dollar Tree over 13,000 stores in the 48 states and Canada, as well as more than $18 billion in sales. This pushes Dollar Tree above and beyond major rival Dollar General, which last year had $17.5 billion in sales and 11,338 current locations. There has also been much talk about the impact this merger will have on the giant Wal-Mart (WMT), which generally focuses on low-income consumers by offering more items for under $1.
- [By Jayson Derrick]
Analysts at BMO Capital downgraded Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) to Market Perform from Outperform with a price target lowered to $59 from a previous $69. Also, analysts at Jefferies maintained a Hold rating on Dollar Tree with a price target raised to $56 from a previous $51. Shares lost 0.78 percent, closing at $54.44.
Hot Valued Stocks To Buy Right Now: Caterpillar Inc.(CAT)
Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives worldwide. It operates through three lines of businesses: Machinery, Engines, and Financial Products. The Machinery business offers construction, mining, and forestry machinery, including track and wheel tractors, track and wheel loaders, pipelayers, motor graders, wheel tractor-scrapers, track and wheel excavators, backhoe loaders, log skidders, log loaders, off-highway trucks, articulated trucks, paving products, skid steer loaders, underground mining equipment, tunnel boring equipment, and related parts. It also manufactures diesel-electric locomotives; and manufactures and services rail-related products and logistics services for other companies. The Engines business provides diesel, heavy fuel, and natural gas reciprocating engines for Caterpillar machinery, electric power generation systems, marine, petrol eum, construction, industrial, agricultural, and other applications. It offers industrial turbines and turbine-related services for oil and gas, and power generation applications. This business also remanufactures Caterpillar engines, machines, and engine components; and offers remanufacturing services for other companies. The Financial Products business provides retail and wholesale financing alternatives for Caterpillar machinery and engines, solar gas turbines, and other equipment and marine vessels, as well as offers loans and various forms of insurance to customers and dealers. It also offers financing for vehicles, power generation facilities, and marine vessels. The company markets its products directly, as well as through its distribution centers, dealers, and distributors. It was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. and changed its name to Caterpillar Inc. in 1986. Caterpillar Inc. was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Peoria, Illinois.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By reports.droy]
The heavy machinery honcho, Caterpillar (CAT), posted its third quarter results on October 23. The company was able to post much better earnings than was predicted, and the report card was completely in the green for the company. The stock market also reacted positively to the news and sent the Caterpillar stock soaring higher with the share price opening 3.3% higher at $97.69 on Thursday morning. Let�� find out the details of the third quarter earnings.�
- [By Ben Levisohn]
Is Caterpillar (CAT) really in the Dow? The beaten down industrial stock has gained 3.1% to $89.95 today, more than one percentage point more than Alcoa (AA), the next biggest winner with a 1.9% gain. The Travelers Companies (TRV) has gained 1.9% to $81.99, and 3M (MMM) has climbed 1.5% to $116.78. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 0.9%.
To put Caterpillar’s gain in perspective, its the stock’s largest jump since May 3, when it rose 3.2%. And with time still remaining today, it could advance even higher.
We’ll chalk the big move up to the better economic news out of China last night, as well as sentiment that the global economy is picking up steam. The Caterpillar is also an industrial stock, and those are pretty popular right now.
I wouldn’t make too much of the move just yet, however. For starters, Caterpillar has been stuck in a range since March, as the following chart shows:
And, as Morgan Stanley reminded investors last week, the market might be expecting too much from Caterpillar. On Sept 5, analyst�Nicole DeBlase and team wrote:
While we agree that Mining destocking activity should cease, we see risk to Construction restocking based on our survey work ��41% of both US and China Construction dealers still think inventory is too high, and plan to reduce throughout the remainder of 2013e. Should Construction activity not pick up materially in early 2014e, we see the potential for this to remain a headwind next year ��but we do still give CAT credit for 5ppts of top-line Construction benefit from restock in 2014e. We are more bearish on Mining CapEx as we do not expect the second derivative of cuts to turn positive until 2016e.
Mogran Stanley initiated the stock as an Equal Weight with an $89 price target.
- [By Travis Hoium]
Second-quarter earnings have been fairly strong across the market, but that's largely due to cost-cutting and margin expansion, not revenue growth. As a global supplier to construction and mining industries, Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT ) sees the foundation of economic expansion and is often considered an economic bellwether, particularly in emerging economies like China. That's why the company's cautionary words have helped drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI ) and S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC ) down 0.26% and 0.39%, respectively, today. �
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